Oil Got Pricier. Why Did Argentina's Fuel Imports Hit Bottom?

In October 2026 a barrel of crude cost about US$108.5 on world markets, 72% more than a year earlier, according to World Bank data, after restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz cut world supply of oil and refined fuels (El Economista). Argentina was still buying refined fuels abroad every month last year, about US$128 million a month on average, so you would expect that shock to show up in its import bill. It did not. Argentina's fuel imports fell to US$49.7 million in October, the smallest monthly bill since at least January 2025, when our data begins. And the most expensive energy-related cargo of the month was not fuel at all. So where did the fuel bill go?

The bill that shrank

Start with the trend. Mineral fuel imports (HS 27, with electricity declarations excluded) peak in the southern winter, when Argentina buys liquefied natural gas. This year they reached US$596.9 million in June, then fell for four straight months to US$49.7 million in October. Refined fuels such as diesel and gasoline (HS 2710) were US$18.8 million, their lowest month in our data. Over ten months, refined fuel imports were US$660.5 million, down 48.5% from US$1,282.2 million in January to October 2025.

A falling bill can mean cheaper fuel or less of it. Here it cannot be cheaper fuel.

Pricier barrels, and far fewer of them

Put the price and the bill side by side, both indexed to October 2025. The World Bank's average crude price (Brent, Dubai and WTI) stood at 172.2 in October 2026. The value of Argentina's fuel imports stood at 40.0, and refined fuels at 17.6. When the price rises by about seven tenths and spending falls by more than half, the volume is what moved.

The official statistics agree. In INDEC's September release, imports of fuels and lubricants were US$181 million, up 3.5%, because prices rose 34.1% while the quantities imported fell 29.4% (iProfesional). INDEC's category is broader than ours (it includes electricity and is valued CIF), but the split between price and quantity points the same way.

Why fewer barrels? Part of it is demand: sales of gasoline and diesel at Argentine pumps fell 2.4% in 2026 through August, El Economista reported. The rest is a question the declarations cannot answer. They show what crossed the border, not how much more Argentine refineries produced, so I will not pretend to know how much local refining replaced imports.

What is left in the tank

Here is what October's fuel imports actually were. Of the US$18.8 million of refined fuels, US$13.4 million was lubricating oil and US$1.5 million gasoline and other light oils. Not a single diesel declaration appears, and the largest line of any refined fuel was worth US$0.53 million, a fraction of a tanker cargo. The biggest fuel items were coal declared at San Nicolás from the United States and Colombia, US$17.3 million in all, and Venezuelan asphalt at Campana, part of US$7.7 million of bitumen and asphalt.

Pipeline gas from Bolivia, a winter regular, was down to a single declaration at the Pocitos border crossing. In other words, what is left of Argentina's fuel import bill is mostly lubricating oil, coal and asphalt, not fuel for cars and trucks.

The twist: the cargo built to export oil

The most expensive energy-related import of October came through a customs office most people have never heard of. San Antonio Oeste, in Río Negro, recorded no imports in 15 of the 21 months before October. In October it declared US$65.0 million, its largest month since January 2025, above its previous high of US$54.9 million in September 2025.

Most of that was two floating structures from the United Arab Emirates, declared at US$32.4 million, with valves in the same declaration, plus US$23.2 million of steel line pipe from India. The two structures match the two monobuoys whose arrival the Río Negro government announced on 5 October for the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) terminal. Each weighs 272 tonnes and will sit about 7 km off the coast, so that tankers carrying up to two million barrels can load crude at sea (Río Negro government). The project is 85% built, and the first large export is planned for March (iProfesional). Whether the Indian pipe belongs to the same project, the declarations do not say.

So the month's biggest energy import was equipment for selling oil, not buying it. That fits the bigger picture. The Hormuz crisis lifted Argentina's oil revenue, and the energy trade surplus reached US$9.43 billion from January to September, up 76% (El Economista). In September alone, energy delivered US$1.6 billion, 53% of the country's trade surplus (iProfesional). Asian refiners have been buying Argentine crude as the Iran war disrupts supply from the Middle East, Bloomberg reported (Buenos Aires Times). One caveat: gas still costs Argentina more. Natural gas and LPG imports were US$1.01 billion from January to October, up 55.3%.

The war's other bill: fertilizer

Argentina sells oil, but it buys fertilizer, and the same shock hit that bill. The World Bank's urea price averaged US$856.9 a tonne in April 2026, more than double April 2025's US$386.9, as the Hormuz conflict raised the price of LNG, urea's raw material. Argentina paid about US$180 million more for fertilizer imports in the first half of 2026 while buying the second-lowest volume since 2019, according to Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario estimates reported by Bichos de Campo. By October, urea was back to US$420.0, 6.5% above a year earlier.

Now the planting season. Fertilizer imports (HS 31) rose for a fourth month to US$321.2 million in October, from US$164.4 million in June. That is a big month, but it is 11.3% below October 2025's US$362.1 million.

With urea and DAP prices about 6.5% higher than a year earlier and spending 11.3% lower, my read is that fewer tonnes arrived. That is an interpretation: our 2025 monthly figures carry no quantities, so I cannot measure it. Traders described a rush and then a pause. In mid-September, importers sped up nitrogen purchases on fears of further rises from Gulf tensions and dearer European gas, with a very active shipment programme for September and October (Bichos de Campo). In early October, urea buying paused after China approved a fourth round of export quotas (Bichos de Campo).

Who sold it? The United States was the largest origin, at US$52.2 million, followed by Lithuania (US$44.2 million), Nigeria (US$35.8 million), Saudi Arabia (US$28.2 million), Morocco (US$27.9 million), Algeria (US$24.7 million), Turkmenistan (US$23.7 million) and China (US$18.5 million).

Trade with the U.S.

That makes the United States Argentina's top fertilizer supplier in October, and mixed fertilizers the largest single product (at the four-digit HS level) that Argentina bought from the U.S.: US$51.5 million, ahead of vaccines and blood products, trucks and gas turbines. In Argentina's own customs data, imports from the U.S. were US$483.3 million in October, up 3.9% from US$465.2 million a year earlier. They have declined for four months from a June peak of US$735.0 million, a winter pattern that also shows up in official U.S. Census data, where U.S. exports to Argentina peaked in June 2026.

The Census numbers, which run through August, show the relationship tilting toward Argentine sales: from January to August, U.S. imports from Argentina rose 31.0% to US$6.51 billion, while U.S. exports to Argentina were up 0.7% at US$6.77 billion, so the U.S. surplus with Argentina narrowed to US$267 million from US$1.76 billion.

What about the trade deal? It is not in force yet (El Cronista). On 14 October the two governments announced amendments meant to get it through Argentina's Congress, after Milei's advisers told the Trump administration they did not have the votes to ratify it (Bloomberg Línea). Whatever October's U.S. numbers show, the deal is not the reason.

So why did fuel imports hit bottom?

Because Argentina bought far fewer barrels, not cheaper ones. Prices rose sharply and the bill still fell, so the volume fell further; INDEC measured a 29.4% drop in fuel import quantities in September. Weaker pump sales explain part of it. How much came from Argentine refineries covering more of the market, the declarations cannot tell us. The bigger shift is visible anyway: in a month when oil was expensive, Argentina's most valuable energy-related cargo was a pair of buoys for exporting crude. The country still pays for the war through its fertilizer bill, but on fuel it now sits on the selling side.

What to watch

• 19 November 2026: INDEC's October trade release. Do fuel import quantities keep falling, and what does INDEC show for imports from the U.S.?
• November declarations: after the early-October pause in urea buying, do fertilizer imports fall back from October's level?
• January to March 2027: VMOS plans to start filling its pipeline and tanks in January, with the first large crude export planned for March (iProfesional).
• Argentina's Congress: the U.S. agreement enters into force 60 days after both countries certify their legal procedures (El Cronista).

Sources

Every link on this page passed the verification gate (live article, date in window, quote found, archived). Tier 1: Bloomberg, WSJ, Reuters, FT. Tier 2: other highly relevant sources (trade press, government, company releases, local press).

Tier 1

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Tier 2

• Tier 2 El Economista. Ormuz le dio más dólares al petróleo argentino, pero el gas sigue siendo la cuenta pendiente. 2026-10-30 archive
• Tier 2 Iprofesional. El superávit energético superó los u$s1.600 millones en septiembre por Vaca Muerta. 2026-10-20 archive
• Tier 2 El Economista. Siete meses en rojo: el consumo de combustibles no levanta y cae 2,4% en el año. 2026-09-25 archive
• Tier 2 Gobierno de Río Negro. Nuevo hito del VMOS: las monoboyas ya están en Río Negro. 2026-10-05 archive
• Tier 2 Iprofesional. Vaca Muerta Oil Sur en su etapa final: cuándo será la primera exportación de crudo. 2026-10-29 archive
• Tier 2 Buenos Aires Times. Asia refiners scoop up Argentine oil as Iran war hits supply. 2026-08-31 archive
• Tier 2 Bichos de Campo. Llegó la factura desde Medio Oriente: Argentina pagó 180 millones de dólares más por importar fertilizantes en apenas seis m. 2026-08-07 archive
• Tier 2 Bichos de Campo. Se aceleraron las compras de fertilizantes nitrogenados para asegurar precio ante un mercado con tendencia alcista. 2026-09-12 archive
• Tier 2 Bichos de Campo. El precio de la urea sigue subiendo en el mercado argentino con valores que se encuentran ya en paridad de importación. 2026-10-03 archive
• Tier 2 El Cronista. La Corte de EE.UU. obligó a cambiar el acuerdo comercial con Argentina: qué se modificó. 2026-10-15 archive
• Tier 2 Bloomberg Línea. Argentina y EE.UU. modifican acuerdo comercial para facilitar su ratificación en el Congreso. 2026-10-15 archive