October Was Supposed to Be the Slowdown. Why Did the Boxes Keep Coming?

On October 8, the National Retail Federation said this year's drawn-out peak shipping season appears to finally be ending. Three weeks later, nearly 35,700 import containers were waiting for trains at Los Angeles and Long Beach. In between, the ships kept unloading. Our October manifests show cargo from China at its heaviest month since January 2025, and the largest carrier in our records hauling more U.S.-bound cargo than in any month we have. The shipping lines, meanwhile, were telling investors that their good year came from prices, not cargo. So what kept the boxes coming, and who got paid for carrying them?

A note before we start: everything below comes from CargoFax U.S. ocean import bills of lading, measured in tonnes and shipments, not dollars. Country means where the cargo was loaded (shipped from), not where it was made.

The slowdown that did not show up

U.S. ocean imports weighed 49.2 million tonnes in October 2026, up 0.8% from September and 9.4% from October 2025.

That steady total hides a swap. Mineral fuels and oils fell 16.3% to 6.76 million tonnes, while everything else rose 4.1% to 42.47 million tonnes, 17.0% more than a year earlier. The growth was outside the tankers, and much of it came from one direction.

Cargo shipped from China weighed 11.69 million tonnes in October, up 8.2% from 10.81 million in September and 23.0% from 9.51 million in October 2025. Only January 2025, at 12.27 million tonnes, was heavier in our data.

It was not one product. Toys and sports goods rose for a fourth straight month, from 398,558 tonnes in June to 631,161 tonnes in October. Household textiles such as bedding rose for a fourth month, from 568,663 tonnes in June to 746,286 tonnes. Plastics rose 7.1% from September to 3.02 million tonnes and furniture 9.6% to 2.58 million. Descartes' September count found the same mix at the top of China's container trade: plastics first, then furniture and bedding, and toys and sporting goods. Nor was it only China: cargo shipped from South Korea was up 23.5% on October 2025, and from Vietnam 21.5%.

For scale, NRF's early-October forecast had October at 2.25 million TEU, up 8.5% from a year earlier, and November down 1%. NRF counts containers and we weigh cargo, so the two will not match, but both point to an October that was busier than a year earlier.

What kept the cargo moving

The Port of Los Angeles gave three reasons in early October. It pointed to a window of lower tariffs versus the year earlier, to the U.S. agreement with China that was due to expire this fall before it was extended in September, and to cargo backlogs in China after two typhoons interrupted port operations, at a time of year when it would usually expect a softening. C.H. Robinson added that space tightened ahead of Golden Week as exporters pushed cargo out before factories closed. By late October, the port's executive director said shippers were ordering more than usual for this time of year, to get ahead of a host of supply chain issues.

Each of these fits the data. None of them can be measured in it: the manifests show the cargo, not the motive.

Where it piled up

The cargo did not land evenly. Los Angeles received 5.86 million tonnes, almost unchanged from 5.88 million in September. Long Beach received 4.84 million tonnes, down 15.8% from 5.75 million in September.

Both ports had just handled record monthly cargo volumes in September, and the strain showed at the railhead. On October 26, nearly 35,700 import containers were waiting for on-dock trains, and average rail dwell had risen to 7.19 days in September from 6.75 days in August. Descartes counted rising port transit delays at eight of the ten largest U.S. container ports in September, and C.H. Robinson estimated that roughly 12% of global container ship capacity was being absorbed by port congestion, the highest level in four years. Long Beach's lower October weight may be a matter of which ships arrived when; the data does not say.

Who carried it, and who got paid

MSC carried 5.74 million tonnes of U.S. ocean imports in October, 11.7% of all weight, up from 9.8% a year earlier and 29.8% more cargo than in October 2025. It was MSC's heaviest month and highest share since our data begins in January 2025.

The other large lines grew too. CMA CGM carried 3.96 million tonnes (up 17.1% from October 2025), Maersk Line, the container arm of A.P. Moller-Maersk (Nasdaq Copenhagen: MAERSK B), 3.87 million (up 12.7%), and ZIM (NYSE: ZIM) 2.08 million (up 6.0%). All eight of the largest container lines in our records carried more than a year earlier.

Here is the twist, and it is something the manifests cannot show. By the carriers' own accounts, their profits grew much faster than their cargo. In early October, ZIM raised its 2026 guidance, reflecting continued strong market demand and favorable momentum in freight rates. On November 5, Maersk raised its 2026 profit guidance for a third time, and Reuters reported that the jump came from higher prices rather than more cargo: Maersk's ocean volumes were largely flat from a year earlier, while its freight rates rose 46% from the previous quarter and more than doubled from a year earlier.

So which was it, more cargo or higher prices? On the U.S. lanes, it looks like both. Maersk said U.S. economic activity held strong, supported by consumer spending and business investment tied to the AI buildout, and our records show Maersk Line carrying 12.7% more U.S.-bound weight than a year earlier. Worldwide, Maersk's volumes were flat, which suggests the U.S. trade was one of the busier lanes in a year when prices did most of the work.

Trade meets Wall Street

Two listed carriers sit inside this story, named here from their own announcements and Reuters reporting: ZIM and A.P. Moller-Maersk, whose shares also trade in the United States as an ADR (OTC: AMKBY). Carrier names come from the bills of lading; no importer is named.

Neither share price rewarded October's cargo. ZIM closed at $29.32 on September 30, 2026 and at $28.38 on October 30, 2026, down 3.2% for the month, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE Arca: SPY) slipped 0.9%, from $762.63 to $755.72 (Yahoo Finance daily closes, retrieved 2026-11-11).

Maersk's ADR fell 4.3% over the same dates, from $17.95 to $17.18. Then came the results: on November 5, Reuters reported that Maersk's shares fell 11 per cent as analysts said the upgrade was expected and third-quarter profit disappointed, and that some analysts expect the congestion and disruption behind high rates to fade as ships return to the Suez Canal and new vessels arrive.

Over a longer window the picture flips. From the week of October 26, 2025 to November 11, 2026, ZIM rose 89.1% and Maersk's ADR 42.4%, against 11.7% for the S&P 500 fund. These are price changes from closes not adjusted for dividends, not total returns.

The pattern suggests investors may be looking past October's cargo to where rates go next. We are not saying the cargo moved the shares: carrier stocks respond to rates, costs, guidance and the wider market, and the ADR also moves with the Danish krone. Not investment advice.

So why didn't the peak season end?

Because several things pushed in the same direction at once, according to the ports: tariffs lower than a year earlier, a China agreement extended rather than expired, typhoon backlogs to clear, and shippers ordering early to get ahead of supply chain problems. The data shows the result: China's heaviest month since January 2025, household goods up for a fourth month, and the largest carrier in our records at its highest share. What it cannot show yet is whether November falls as NRF forecast, or whether, as the carriers' investors seem to expect, prices fall first.

What to watch

• Mid-November 2026: the Port of Los Angeles' October count. The port expected about 900,000 TEU, down from its record September; our weight at Los Angeles held at 5.86 million tonnes.
• Early December 2026: NRF's Global Port Tracker with October's actual TEU, against its forecast of 2.25 million and a 1% decline for November.
• Our December 2026 edition: whether cargo shipped from China stays above 11 million tonnes in November, after 11.69 million in October.
• The railhead: whether the count of import containers waiting for trains at Los Angeles and Long Beach falls from about 35,700 on October 26.

Sources

Every link on this page passed the verification gate (live article, date in window, quote found, archived). Tier 1: Bloomberg, WSJ, Reuters, FT. Tier 2: other highly relevant sources (trade press, government, company releases, local press).

Tier 1

No Tier 1 source on this page.

Tier 2

• Tier 2 NRF. Import Cargo’s Extended Peak Season Wrapping Up. 2026-10-08 archive
• Tier 2 FreightWaves. Backlog grows as 35,000 containers await rail service at LA–Long Beach. 2026-10-28 archive
• Tier 2 Container News. US container imports hit record September high. 2026-10-09 archive
• Tier 2 The Maritime Executive. Port of Los Angeles Has Best Month Ever, Capping Four-Month Surge in TEUs. 2026-10-09 archive
• Tier 2 Gcaptain. Port Congestion Ties Up 12% of Global Global Container Shipping Capacity. 2026-10-02 archive
• Tier 2 hellenicshippingnews.com. ZIM Raises Full-Year 2026 Guidance. 2026-10-07 archive
• Tier 2 Baird Maritime / Work Boat World. Maersk shares fall despite third profit guidance raise in 2026. 2026-11-05 archive