In August 2025, Colombia shipped 71,465 tonnes of coffee beans to the world. In August 2026 it shipped 50,951 tonnes. That is more than 20,000 tonnes less in a single month, and it did not happen because buyers paid less: the world arabica price barely moved over the year, and Colombian coffee fetched a little more per kilogram. Fewer beans left the country. There are two obvious suspects, a smaller harvest and a magnitude 7.4 earthquake that disrupted the roads to Colombia's main coffee port, and a third, less obvious one hiding in the paperwork. Let's take them one at a time.
Not a price story
Start with the money. Colombia's coffee exports (HS 0901, the customs heading for coffee beans, roasted or not) earned US$409 million in August 2026, down 23.5% from US$535 million in August 2025. Weight fell faster, 28.7%, to 50,951 tonnes from 71,465 tonnes. So each kilogram earned more, not less: US$8.03, up 7.3% from US$7.49. The World Bank's arabica benchmark was nearly flat over the same year, at US$7.97 a kilogram in August 2026 against US$8.08.
Source: CargoFax analysis of Colombia customs (DIAN/DANE) records; imports data updated 2026-11-11, exports 2026-10-18.
When value falls less than volume and the world price is flat, the story is volume. And the shortfall did not start in August. From January to August 2026, Colombia exported 420,311 tonnes of coffee, 15.4% less than the 496,927 tonnes of the same months of 2025, with the low point in April at 31,405 tonnes.
Source: CargoFax analysis of Colombia customs (DIAN/DANE) records; imports data updated 2026-11-11, exports 2026-10-18.
Table view
| 2026 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 72,462 t | 71,856 t |
| Feb | 48,232 t | 60,563 t |
| Mar | 48,733 t | 72,849 t |
| Apr | 31,405 t | 59,221 t |
| May | 53,514 t | 51,480 t |
| Jun | 48,627 t | 49,802 t |
| Jul | 66,387 t | 59,692 t |
| Aug | 50,951 t | 71,465 t |
Suspect one: a smaller harvest
The simplest explanation is that there was less coffee to sell. The coffee growers' federation reported August 2026 production of 1.09 million 60-kilogram bags, down 12% from 1.24 million a year earlier, and production over the previous 12 months of 12.58 million bags, down 15%. The federation said climate variability had affected growing conditions across the coffee regions, El Colombiano reported.
A smaller harvest explains a slow year. It does not explain why August fell so much harder than the federation's own export count, which showed 1.05 million bags, down 10%. For that, follow the coffee to the coast.
Suspect two: the earthquake
On 10 August 2026, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia, with its epicentre near San José del Palmar in Chocó. Reuters reported 265 deaths by 12 August, according to World Coffee Portal. For trade, the damage that mattered most was on the roads: landslides cut the routes to Buenaventura, the Pacific port that handles most of Colombia's coffee, and the quake halted operations at the port.
The industry did not agree on how bad it was. The federation said exports continued through the Caribbean ports of Cartagena and Santa Marta, while Asoexport said they were practically paralysed because cargo could not reach Buenaventura from the interior, Infobae reported. By 13 August the port had resumed operations after inspections, with the road from Buga open only with restrictions.
The customs data shows a real disruption. Buenaventura handled 69.4% of Colombia's coffee export weight in July 2026. In August, coffee leaving Buenaventura fell 25.4%, to 34,367 tonnes from 46,049 tonnes. If coffee had simply moved to the Caribbean, the other ports would have risen. They fell too, to 16,584 tonnes from 20,338 tonnes.
Source: CargoFax analysis of Colombia customs (DIAN/DANE) records; imports data updated 2026-11-11, exports 2026-10-18.
Table view
| Buenaventura | All other ports | |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 42,857 t | 28,999 t |
| Feb 2025 | 37,898 t | 22,665 t |
| Mar 2025 | 47,311 t | 25,538 t |
| Apr 2025 | 34,933 t | 24,288 t |
| May 2025 | 33,499 t | 17,981 t |
| Jun 2025 | 29,470 t | 20,331 t |
| Jul 2025 | 37,073 t | 22,619 t |
| Aug 2025 | 43,730 t | 27,735 t |
| Sep 2025 | 48,052 t | 19,236 t |
| Oct 2025 | 45,368 t | 21,445 t |
| Nov 2025 | 42,061 t | 26,399 t |
| Dec 2025 | 38,629 t | 19,769 t |
| Jan 2026 | 47,768 t | 24,694 t |
| Feb 2026 | 28,896 t | 19,336 t |
| Mar 2026 | 27,676 t | 21,057 t |
| Apr 2026 | 19,142 t | 12,264 t |
| May 2026 | 33,402 t | 20,112 t |
| Jun 2026 | 28,142 t | 20,485 t |
| Jul 2026 | 46,049 t | 20,338 t |
| Aug 2026 | 34,367 t | 16,584 t |
The quake shows across the whole port, not just in coffee. Sea imports entering Buenaventura fell 20.0% from July to US$2.13 billion, and exports leaving it fell 29.1% to US$452 million. Cars from China, which mostly land there, fell to US$185 million from US$288 million in July, while sea imports through Cartagena, on the Caribbean, rose 3.9%.
Ship schedules move monthly port figures too, so the earthquake is the likeliest explanation for Buenaventura's August, not a proven one.
The twist: two clocks
Here is the part that is easy to miss. The federation counted August exports down 10%. The customs data shows coffee weight down 28.7%. Both can be right, because they keep different clocks.
DANE, the statistics agency, records exports on the date of the customs declaration, not the date the ship sails, except for oil, according to its August exports bulletin. Of the coffee declared in August 2026, 66.3% shipped in August and 31.1% in July. So the customs figure for August is partly a July figure, and coffee that sailed in late August may be declared in September. The federation also counts in 60-kilogram bags rather than tonnes of declared weight.
In other words, August's 28.7% drop mixes three things: fewer beans, a port disrupted for days, and the paperwork calendar. Monthly data cannot say how much of each.
Trade with the U.S.
The United States is Colombia's biggest coffee customer: it bought US$175.4 million of Colombian coffee in August 2026, 42.9% of the total, down from US$203.5 million a year earlier. Belgium took US$12.1 million, against US$41.8 million.
Source: CargoFax analysis of Colombia customs (DIAN/DANE) records; imports data updated 2026-11-11, exports 2026-10-18.
Table view
| Aug 2026 | Aug 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| United States | US$175M | US$203M |
| Canada | US$36.8M | US$50.5M |
| Japan | US$24.6M | US$38.0M |
| Germany | US$21.3M | US$34.6M |
| Belgium | US$12.1M | US$41.8M |
| All other destinations | US$139M | US$167M |
Is the new U.S. tariff to blame? No. Since 24 July 2026 the U.S. has charged an additional 12.5% on Colombian goods that are not expressly excluded, but coffee, oil, gold, bananas and avocados are excluded, Portafolio reported.
The wider relationship moved the other way. Colombia's own data shows imports from the U.S. of US$1.74 billion in August 2026, up 48.8% from US$1.17 billion, with refined fuel accounting for most of the increase, and exports to the U.S. of US$1.21 billion, up 8.2% from US$1.12 billion, helped by gold. Official U.S. Census data for August, the latest month, shows U.S. exports to Colombia of US$2.05 billion, up 25.9%, and U.S. imports from Colombia of US$1.48 billion, up 0.5%. The two views differ on valuation and timing but agree on direction.
Source: CargoFax analysis of Colombia customs (DIAN/DANE) records; imports data updated 2026-11-11, exports 2026-10-18. U.S. Census Bureau international trade data (general imports, customs value; exports, f.a.s.), CargoFax Census pipeline.
Table view
| Aug 2026 | Aug 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia data: imports from the U.S. | US$1.74B | US$1.17B |
| Colombia data: exports to the U.S. | US$1.21B | US$1.12B |
| U.S. Census: U.S. exports to Colombia | US$2.05B | US$1.63B |
| U.S. Census: U.S. imports from Colombia | US$1.48B | US$1.47B |
The product the tariff does hit is flowers, and August was the first full month at the new rate. Cut flower exports to the U.S. were US$120.7 million, up 8.5% from US$111.2 million in August 2025. That looks like resilience, but the same clock applies: DANE reports that 82.6% of the flowers declared in August had shipped in July, and the tariff began only on 24 July.
Source: CargoFax analysis of Colombia customs (DIAN/DANE) records; imports data updated 2026-11-11, exports 2026-10-18.
Table view
| Cut flowers to the U.S. | |
|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | US$153M |
| Feb 2025 | US$183M |
| Mar 2025 | US$215M |
| Apr 2025 | US$157M |
| May 2025 | US$188M |
| Jun 2025 | US$224M |
| Jul 2025 | US$120M |
| Aug 2025 | US$111M |
| Sep 2025 | US$119M |
| Oct 2025 | US$122M |
| Nov 2025 | US$149M |
| Dec 2025 | US$143M |
| Jan 2026 | US$141M |
| Feb 2026 | US$163M |
| Mar 2026 | US$210M |
| Apr 2026 | US$115M |
| May 2026 | US$252M |
| Jun 2026 | US$160M |
| Jul 2026 | US$140M |
| Aug 2026 | US$121M |
So where did the coffee go?
Some of it was never there: production fell 12% in August, and a smaller harvest has weighed on exports all year. Some of it was stuck: the earthquake disrupted Colombia's main coffee port for days in the middle of August. And some of it is a matter of accounting: the customs calendar pushed part of the month's coffee into July's or September's columns. My read: the harvest explains the trend, and the earthquake explains why August fell harder than the federation's count. That is an interpretation, not a measurement, and September's declarations will test it.
One more risk sits on the horizon. The grid operator XM put the chance of a very strong El Niño between October and December 2026 at 95%, warning that it could reduce the water available for power generation, according to La República. What a dry spell would do to the next coffee crop is a question for the coming months.
What to watch
- 18 November 2026: DANE publishes September imports, the first full month after the earthquake on Buenaventura's import side, including cars from China.
- September 2026 coffee declarations: does coffee leaving Buenaventura return toward July's 46,049 tonnes, or stay near August's 34,367?
- October to December 2026: XM's window for a very strong El Niño; dry weather would test the next coffee crop.
- January and February 2027: the Valentine's Day flower season, the first peak under the 12.5% U.S. tariff.
Sources
Every link on this page passed the verification gate (live article, date in window, quote found, archived). Tier 1: Bloomberg, WSJ, Reuters, FT. Tier 2: other highly relevant sources (trade press, government, company releases, local press).
Tier 1
No Tier 1 source on this page.
Tier 2
- Tier 2 Periódico El Colombiano. Cafeteros prevén cosecha de 12,2 millones de sacos del grano este año, una ca�da frente a 2025. 2026-09-04 archive
- Tier 2 World Coffee Portal. Colombia earthquake disrupts global coffee exports. 2026-08-13 archive
- Tier 2 Infobae Colombia. Así están las exportaciones de café de Colombia luego del terremoto del 10 de agosto: la Federación Nacional de Cafeteros despejó dudas. 2026-08-13 archive
- Tier 2 dane.gov.co. www.dane.gov.co. 2026-09-30 archive
- Tier 2 Portafolio.co. Por qué Estados Unidos impuso un arancel de 12,5 % a Colombia y cuáles sectores serán los más golpeados. 2026-07-23 archive
- Tier 2 Diario La República. XM pide aumentar generación térmica ante el riesgo de un fenómeno de El Niño muy fuerte. 2026-09-05 archive