Fuel Imports at a Low as Oil Climbs, a Lighter Fertilizer Season, and a U.S. Deal Still Waiting

Bottom line: Argentina imported US$5.31 billion of goods in October 2026, 4.7% less than in September and 8.4% less than in October 2025. Fuel imports fell to their lowest month since January 2025 while world crude prices averaged 72% more than a year earlier, and fertilizer imports rose into the planting season but stayed 11.3% below October 2025.

Claudio, Argentina desk. Dataset: Argentina customs (ARCA) import declarations, FOB US$. Period: October 2026, with January to October 2026 compared to the same months of 2025. Data vintage: updated 11 November 2026. Coverage: imports only (export data is censored). Electricity declarations (HS 2716) and goods originating in Tierra del Fuego and Argentine free zones are excluded. Declaration-level detail (origin by product, customs office) is used for October 2026 only; earlier months use monthly totals. Weight is too sparse for price-per-kilo analysis.

Key findings

• Total imports: US$5.31 billion in October 2026, down 4.7% from September (US$5.57 billion) and 8.4% from October 2025 (US$5.80 billion); US$48.95 billion from January to October, down 6.7%.
• Fuels at a low: mineral fuel imports (HS 27, electricity excluded) were US$49.7 million, the lowest month since January 2025 and 60.0% below October 2025. Refined fuels (HS 2710) were US$18.8 million, down 82.4%, and US$660.5 million over ten months, down 48.5%.
• Price vs volume: crude averaged US$108.5 a barrel, 72.2% more than in October 2025 (World Bank), so the fall points to volume, not price. INDEC's September figures show fuel import quantities down 29.4% year on year.
• Fertilizers: imports (HS 31) rose for a fourth month to US$321.2 million, the planting-season peak, but were 11.3% below October 2025, while urea and DAP prices were 6.5% higher.
• The U.S.: imports from the United States were US$483.3 million, up 3.9% from October 2025, with mixed fertilizers the largest product. The February trade agreement is not yet in force.

The numbers

From August to October 2026, imports were US$16.11 billion, 7.0% more than from May to July and 4.1% less than a year earlier.

Why did fuel imports fall to a low while oil got pricier?

In 2025 Argentina still bought refined fuels abroad every month, an average of US$128.2 million a month from January to October, plus liquefied natural gas in winter.

2026 looks different. From January to October, refined fuel imports were US$660.5 million, down 48.5% from US$1,282.2 million. The whole fuels chapter fell less, 11.0% to US$1.88 billion, because winter gas cost more. It has now fallen for four months, from US$596.9 million in June to US$49.7 million in October, and refined fuels were US$18.8 million, their lowest month since January 2025.

This happened while oil got more expensive. The World Bank's average crude price (Brent, Dubai and WTI) was US$108.5 a barrel in October 2026, against US$63.0 a year earlier. Indexed to October 2025, the crude price stood at 172.2, the value of fuel imports at 40.0 and refined fuel imports at 17.6. That points to volume: Argentina appears to have bought far fewer barrels, not cheaper ones.

INDEC's broader category shows the same split in September: fuel and lubricant imports were US$181 million, up 3.5%, as prices rose 34.1% and quantities fell 29.4% (iProfesional).

October's declarations show what is left. Of the US$18.8 million of refined fuels, US$13.4 million was lubricating oil and US$1.5 million gasoline and other light oils; no diesel declaration appears at all, and the largest single line was worth US$0.53 million. The biggest fuel items were coal declared at San Nicolás from the United States and Colombia, US$17.3 million in all, and Venezuelan asphalt at Campana, part of US$7.7 million of bitumen and asphalt.

Part of the why is documented. Demand is weak: sales of gasoline and diesel fell 2.4% in 2026 through August, El Economista reported. The price shock came from abroad: restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz cut world supply of oil, LNG and refined fuels, and the same crisis lifted Argentina's oil revenue, according to El Economista. Production kept growing, to 973,700 barrels a day in September, 15.5% more than a year earlier (El Economista). How much more local refining replaced imports is not visible in the declarations.

The month's largest energy-related import was not fuel at all. San Antonio Oeste customs in Río Negro, which recorded no imports in 15 of the previous 21 months, declared US$65.0 million in October, its largest month since January 2025, above US$54.9 million in September 2025: two floating structures from the United Arab Emirates, valves in the same declaration, and steel line pipe from India.

The two structures (US$32.4 million) match the two monobuoys whose arrival the Río Negro government announced on 5 October for the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) export terminal: 272 tonnes each, to sit about 7 km off the coast so that tankers carrying up to two million barrels can load crude at sea (Río Negro government). The project is 85% built, with the first large export planned for March (iProfesional). The declarations alone do not say whether the US$23.2 million of Indian line pipe belongs to the same project.

The nuance: gas went the other way. Natural gas and LPG imports were US$1.01 billion from January to October, up 55.3%, in line with reporting that gas imports rose 70% in nine months on higher prices and volumes (El Economista).

What the data shows: Argentina's fuel import bill hit its lowest month since January 2025 while crude cost 72% more than a year earlier, so the change appears to be in volume, not price. Weaker demand is documented; how much domestic refining replaced imports remains open.

How big is this year's fertilizer season?

Fertilizer imports follow the crop calendar, with a first wave from March to May and a peak in September and October, when the summer crops go in. In 2025 the peak was October, at US$362.1 million.

2026 kept the calendar but not the bill. Imports (HS 31) rose for a fourth month to US$321.2 million in October, from US$164.4 million in June, the second-highest month since January 2025, but 11.3% below October 2025. September and October together were 7.8% below the same months of 2025, while January to October was up 2.1%, at US$1.74 billion.

The year had two phases. From March to May, Argentina spent US$521.9 million, 45.4% more than a year earlier, while the World Bank's urea price averaged US$856.9 a tonne in April 2026, more than double April 2025's US$386.9. The Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario estimated that higher prices cost about US$180 million extra in the first half, even though the volume imported was the second lowest since 2019, with the sharpest drop in urea, as Bichos de Campo reported; the Hormuz conflict had raised the price of LNG, urea's raw material. By October urea was back to US$420.0 a tonne, 6.5% above a year earlier, and DAP was US$803.1, also 6.5% higher.

With prices about 6.5% higher and spending 11.3% lower, October's tonnage was probably smaller than a year earlier; our October 2025 figures carry no quantities, so this is an inference. Market reports fit it. In mid-September importers sped up nitrogen purchases, with a very active shipment programme for September and October, citing Gulf tensions and dearer European gas, while phosphate buying was in virtual paralysis (Bichos de Campo). In early October urea imports paused after China approved a fourth round of export quotas (Bichos de Campo).

October's suppliers were spread out: the United States led with US$52.2 million (16.3%), mostly mixed fertilizers, ahead of Lithuania (US$44.2 million) and Nigeria (US$35.8 million). Urea alone was US$111.3 million, led by Nigeria, Algeria, Turkmenistan and China.

That matches what traders described in August: urea offered from China for discharge in two Argentine ports in late September, and offers from Russia and Nigeria (Bichos de Campo). Most of October's fertilizer came by sea through San Nicolás (42.1%), San Lorenzo (30.4%) and Bahía Blanca (11.4%).

What the data shows: Fertilizer imports followed the usual calendar, but the money moved differently: more from March to May, when prices spiked, and less in September and October. With October prices only slightly above 2025, smaller tonnage is the likely reason for the lower bill; the data on hand cannot measure it.

Trade with the U.S.

Argentina's own customs data: imports from the United States were US$483.3 million in October 2026, up 3.9% from US$465.2 million in October 2025, and 9.1% of all imports (8.0% a year earlier). They have declined for four months from a June peak of US$735.0 million; in 2025 the winter peak came in July. From January to October they were US$4.95 billion, down 2.3%, though their share rose to 10.1% from 9.7% because total imports fell faster.

Official U.S. Census data (through August 2026, the latest month in our files): U.S. exports to Argentina were US$6.77 billion from January to August, up 0.7%, and U.S. imports from Argentina US$6.51 billion, up 31.0%, so the U.S. surplus with Argentina narrowed to US$267 million from US$1.76 billion. U.S. exports to Argentina peaked at US$1.16 billion in June 2026, the highest month since January 2024, the same winter peak seen from the Argentine side.

In October the top products from the U.S. were mixed fertilizers (US$51.5 million), vaccines and blood products (US$31.7 million) and trucks and pickups (US$21.8 million).

Policy. The reciprocal trade agreement signed in February is not yet in force (El Cronista). On 14 October the two governments announced amendments meant to win the approval of Argentina's Congress, after Milei's advisers told the Trump administration they lacked the votes and after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling struck down Trump's global tariffs (Bloomberg Línea). Argentina committed under the deal to eliminate or automate import licences for U.S. products and to recognise certain FDA authorisations for medicines and medical devices (El Cronista), so any effect on these flows would come after ratification.

The nuance: INDEC's September release (CIF, all regimes) put imports from the U.S. at US$631 million, up 15.6%, and exports to the U.S. at US$1,011 million, up 38.9% (Los Andes); our FOB series has US$493.5 million, up 3.9%. Valuation, timing and coverage differ, so we do not force the figures to agree.

What the data shows: Imports from the U.S. edged up from a year earlier in October, led by fertilizers, and the decline since June looks seasonal. U.S. data through August shows the relationship tilting toward Argentine sales, and the agreement that would lower Argentine barriers to U.S. goods still awaits Congress.

Verification notes

• Kazakhstan: US$44.0 million, a high since January 2025, is one cargo of natural uranium (HS 2844). The anomaly register classes it as real trade on the evidence, but no press report was found and a recheck is due after 25 November 2026, so it stays out of the story.
• United Arab Emirates: US$45.1 million, a high since January 2025, is mostly the two buoys (US$32.4 million) and US$8.6 million of valves in the same declaration. Explained.
• Steel slabs (HS 7207): US$36.5 million, up from US$0.8 million: three declarations from Brazil at San Nicolás, a return to amounts seen every month from June to December 2025 (register: real trade). They explain the iron and steel chapter's rise to US$101.3 million.
• Ships (HS 89): US$46.8 million, a high since January 2025, mostly the buoys plus one fishing vessel from China (US$8.8 million) declared at Necochea. One-offs.
• Bitumen and asphalt (HS 2713): US$7.7 million, mostly Venezuelan asphalt at Campana; lumpy, real trade per the register. A U.S. sulphur line flagged for its unit value is in line with 2026 prices (register).
• Lithuania: US$45.2 million in October, 98% fertilizers, and US$96.8 million from August to October against US$5.3 million a year earlier. No public report found (searched "Achema Lithuania fertilizer exports Argentina 2026 UAN South America"); kept out of headlines.
• Medicines: packaged medicines (HS 3004) fell 41.5% to US$115.2 million after September's high of US$197.0 million.
• Highs without a story: earthmoving machinery (HS 8429) reached US$59.8 million and aluminium (HS 76) US$46.6 million, both highs since January 2025, but earthmoving machinery is 1.1% below 2025 over ten months. The data does not show why. Generating sets (HS 8502) fell to US$8.5 million after US$74.6 million in September.
• Electrified cars (follow-up from our October edition): duties recorded on Chinese hybrid and electric cars were again 38.7% to 38.8% of FOB. The only zero-duty lines, 22 cars, were declared at Río Grande in Tierra del Fuego, which has its own customs regime, so the zero-tariff quota still does not show in the duty fields. Unit counts are declared quantities, used only as a cross-check.

What to watch

• INDEC's October 2026 trade release, 19 November 2026: whether fuel import quantities keep falling, and INDEC's October figure for imports from the U.S.
• November fertilizer arrivals: after the early-October pause in urea buying (Bichos de Campo), whether November imports fall back from October's level.
• VMOS: line fill in January and a first large crude export planned for March 2027 (iProfesional).
• The U.S. agreement in Congress: it enters into force 60 days after both countries certify their legal procedures (El Cronista).
• Electrified cars after Decree 1128/2026, which raised the tariff-free FOB cap to US$35,000 for electric cars and US$18,000 for hybrids (Parabrisas). October shows no shift yet: Chinese electric cars (HS 8703.80) averaged US$13,306 FOB per declared unit, and 9 of 2,751 units were declared above US$16,000.

Methodology and data notes

Values are FOB US$ from ARCA import declarations as built by CargoFax (vintage 11 November 2026), matching the public October 2026 report. Electricity (HS 2716, regime IC01) and goods of Argentine origin from Tierra del Fuego and free zones (origin codes 250 to 264) are excluded; with them, October would be about US$0.77 billion higher. Partners are countries of origin; customs offices are ARCA's aduanas; transport mode is inferred from unpublished codes. Declaration-level detail (origin by product, customs office, declared units) is used for October 2026 only; earlier months use monthly totals by product, partner and customs office, so cross-tabulations such as fertilizers by origin in October 2025 are not available. Our series begins in January 2025, so "highest" and "lowest" mean since then. World Bank prices are monthly averages from the Pink Sheet (updated 3 November 2026); the crude price is the simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. INDEC's figures are CIF and cover all regimes, and its fuel category includes electricity, so they differ from ours. U.S. Census figures come from CargoFax's Census files (retrieved 19 October 2026, through August 2026). The anomaly register for October 2026 has 10 entries, all explained and none pending. No importer names are used.

Sources

Every link on this page passed the verification gate (live article, date in window, quote found, archived). Tier 1: Bloomberg, WSJ, Reuters, FT. Tier 2: other highly relevant sources (trade press, government, company releases, local press).

Tier 1

No Tier 1 source on this page.

Tier 2

• Tier 2 Iprofesional. El superávit energético superó los u$s1.600 millones en septiembre por Vaca Muerta. 2026-10-20 archive
• Tier 2 El Economista. Siete meses en rojo: el consumo de combustibles no levanta y cae 2,4% en el año. 2026-09-25 archive
• Tier 2 El Economista. Ormuz le dio más dólares al petróleo argentino, pero el gas sigue siendo la cuenta pendiente. 2026-10-30 archive
• Tier 2 El Economista. Vaca Muerta quedó a un paso del millón de barriles y Neuquén rompió otro techo. 2026-10-26 archive
• Tier 2 Gobierno de Río Negro. Nuevo hito del VMOS: las monoboyas ya están en Río Negro. 2026-10-05 archive
• Tier 2 Iprofesional. Vaca Muerta Oil Sur en su etapa final: cuándo será la primera exportación de crudo. 2026-10-29 archive
• Tier 2 Bichos de Campo. Llegó la factura desde Medio Oriente: Argentina pagó 180 millones de dólares más por importar fertilizantes en apenas seis m. 2026-08-07 archive
• Tier 2 Bichos de Campo. Se aceleraron las compras de fertilizantes nitrogenados para asegurar precio ante un mercado con tendencia alcista. 2026-09-12 archive
• Tier 2 Bichos de Campo. El precio de la urea sigue subiendo en el mercado argentino con valores que se encuentran ya en paridad de importación. 2026-10-03 archive
• Tier 2 Bichos de Campo. ¡Qué gran noticia para el maíz! Se cortó la racha alcista de los precios de la urea gracias a una inesperada “ayuda” de. 2026-08-07 archive
• Tier 2 El Cronista. La Corte de EE.UU. obligó a cambiar el acuerdo comercial con Argentina: qué se modificó. 2026-10-15 archive
• Tier 2 Bloomberg Línea. Argentina y EE.UU. modifican acuerdo comercial para facilitar su ratificación en el Congreso. 2026-10-15 archive
• Tier 2 Los Andes. Argentina logró una balanza comercial de casi US$3.000 millones en septiembre, pese al déficit con China. 2026-10-19 archive
• Tier 2 Parabrisas. Cambios en el régimen de autos eléctricos: fijan nuevos valores máximos para importar sin arancel. 2026-09-30 archive

Data sources

• U.S. Census Bureau, international trade data, through August 2026 (CargoFax Census files).
• World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices, updated 3 November 2026.