China Pulls Ahead of Brazil, a Pricier Gas Winter, and Medicines at a Series High

Bottom line: Argentina imported US$5.57 billion of goods in September 2026, up 6.6% from August but down 5.0% from September 2025. Under the monthly swing sits a slower shift: through nine months of 2026, China has supplied more than Brazil, mostly because Brazilian vehicles fell sharply while Chinese cars more than tripled.

Claudio, Argentina desk. Dataset: Argentina customs (ARCA) import declarations, FOB US$. Period: September 2026, with January to September 2026 compared to the same months of 2025. Data vintage: updated 12 October 2026. Coverage: imports only (export data is censored). Electricity declarations (HS 2716) and goods originating in Tierra del Fuego and Argentine free zones are excluded. Weight is too sparse for price-per-kilo analysis.

Key findings

• Total imports: US$5.57 billion in September 2026, up 6.6% from US$5.23 billion in August 2026 and down 5.0% from US$5.87 billion in September 2025. Through nine months, imports reached US$43.64 billion, down 6.5% from US$46.67 billion in January to September 2025.
• China ahead of Brazil: from January to September 2026, imports from China were US$11.81 billion (27.1% of the total), up 1.3% from US$11.65 billion a year earlier. Imports from Brazil fell 20.2%, or US$2.50 billion, to US$9.89 billion (22.7% of the total, down from 26.6%). Vehicles and parts account for US$1.95 billion of Brazil's decline.
• Cars by origin: Brazilian passenger cars (HS 8703) fell 29.9% to US$2.14 billion in January to September 2026, while Chinese passenger cars rose from US$287.9 million to US$913.1 million, more than three times the 2025 level.
• Gas winter: natural gas and LPG imports (HS 2711) fell to US$30.3 million in September from US$231.8 million in August as the winter LNG season ended. LNG declared by sea over the 2026 season was worth 44.5% more than in 2025 for 2.7% less volume.
• Medicines: pharmaceutical imports (HS 30) reached US$354.3 million in September, the highest month since January 2025 (the start of our data), up 17.9% from September 2025. Through nine months they rose 23.6% to US$2.74 billion. The data does not show why.

The numbers

Third-quarter 2026 imports were US$15.97 billion, up 9.1% from the second quarter of 2026 (US$14.64 billion) and down 3.9% from the third quarter of 2025 (US$16.62 billion).

Is China now Argentina's main supplier?

Brazil has usually been Argentina's first supplier, the natural result of Mercosur, a shared border, and a car industry built on both sides of it. In January to September 2025, Brazil led China by about US$743 million.

2026 looks different. China supplied more than Brazil in seven of the nine months from January to September 2026, against three of nine in the same months of 2025; Brazil led only in March and May. Over the nine months, China's share rose from 25.0% to 27.1% and Brazil's fell from 26.6% to 22.7%. China's own total rose only 1.3%, so this is mainly a story of Brazil falling, not China rising.

The fall is concentrated in vehicles. Imports of vehicles and parts (HS 87) from Brazil fell 33.5%, from US$5.82 billion to US$3.87 billion, about 78% of Brazil's total decline. Passenger cars fell US$913 million, tractors US$416 million, trucks and pickups US$268 million, and vehicle parts US$184 million.

In September alone, Argentina imported US$215.0 million of Brazilian passenger cars, down from US$362.4 million in September 2025, and US$140.0 million of Chinese cars, up from US$85.6 million. Brazil's share of passenger car imports fell from 61.4% to 50.9%. In declared units, Brazilian cars fell 32.3%, from 208,788 to 141,388, in January to September, and Chinese cars rose from 25,407 to 65,024. Both arrive mainly through the Campana customs office: Chinese cars by sea, Brazilian cars split roughly evenly between sea and road.

Two forces appear to be at work. The first is a weaker car market: Argentina registered 435,493 new vehicles in January to September 2026, 13% fewer than a year earlier, and September registrations were down 11.4% year on year, according to El Economista, citing ACARA. Brazil's carmakers felt it early: Anfavea data showed shipments to Argentina falling from 15,600 to 14,400 vehicles in January and February, as Paraíba Business reported.

The second is policy. Decree 49/2025 removed the import tariff on electrified vehicles up to US$16,000 FOB within an annual quota of 50,000 units, as DolarHoy summarized. The same report said hybrid and electric car sales rose 339.4% in the first half of 2026. Regional press credits Chinese makers' growth to those quotas and reports that imports from outside Mercosur reached about 25% of the market (ANB). Bloomberg Línea described the import opening as hitting the car market head-on, while noting that Brazil remains the main origin of vehicles sold in Argentina. The data fits that reading: hybrid and electric cars (HS 8703.40, 8703.60, and 8703.80) made up US$735.8 million, or 80.6%, of Chinese passenger car imports in January to September 2026.

The nuance is in the duties. Brazilian cars enter duty-free under Mercosur (duties recorded equal 0.0% of FOB value), while duties recorded on Chinese cars equal about 37.8% of FOB value in 2026, including on the hybrid lines. The declarations alone do not show how the zero-tariff quota was applied, so we do not draw conclusions about how much of the Chinese growth it explains.

What the data shows: Brazil's lead over China disappeared in 2026 mainly because Argentina bought far fewer Brazilian vehicles in a weaker car market. Chinese cars, mostly hybrids, filled part of the gap. How the quota shows up in recorded duties remains open.

Why did gas imports drop in September?

Argentina imports liquefied natural gas by ship in the southern winter, roughly May to August, when heating demand exceeds what domestic pipelines can deliver, plus some gas by pipeline from Bolivia.

September marked the end of that season. Natural gas and LPG imports fell from US$231.8 million in August to US$30.3 million, with no LNG recorded by sea. The whole fuels chapter (HS 27) has declined for three consecutive months, from US$596.9 million in June to US$83.2 million in September.

The season itself was more expensive than 2025. LNG declared by sea from March to August 2026 totalled 2.20 million cubic meters worth US$814.3 million, against 2.26 million cubic meters worth US$563.5 million in April to August 2025. Volume edged down 2.7%; value rose 44.5%. That is a price story: the implied value rose from about US$250 to US$371 per cubic meter. El Economista reported in June that recent cargoes cost about 50% more than in 2025, pointing to a cold wave and to tension in energy markets linked to the conflict in the Middle East. World Bank data points the same way: the European gas benchmark averaged about US$18.1 per million BTU in June to August 2026, against US$11.7 a year earlier.

Pipeline gas from Bolivia also rose, to US$180.2 million in January to September 2026 from US$75.9 million a year earlier. Timing appears to explain part of it: private buyers began importing Bolivian gas for northern power plants in June 2025 (EconoJournal), while in 2026 imports resumed in April, before winter, because pipeline capacity from Vaca Muerta to the north is limited at peak demand (Río Negro).

Gas is the exception within fuels. Refined fuels (HS 2710) fell 45.4%, from US$1.17 billion to US$641.7 million, through nine months, and the fuels chapter as a whole fell 7.9% to US$1.83 billion. That matches reporting that gasoil purchases fell 48.2% in July (El Economista) and that energy imports fell 37.7% through May as Vaca Muerta crude became the country's main export (El Economista).

What the data shows: September's drop in gas is seasonal. The 2026 winter cost more because LNG prices were higher, not because Argentina bought more by volume, while refined fuel imports kept falling.

What is behind the rise in medicine imports?

Imports of finished medicines, vaccines, and blood products are a steady flow for Argentina, between about US$190 million and US$350 million a month since January 2025.

September was the top of that range. Pharmaceutical imports (HS 30) reached US$354.3 million, the highest monthly value since January 2025. Packaged medicines (HS 3004) rose from US$77.3 million in August, the lowest month in our data, to US$197.0 million, up 29.0% from US$152.7 million in September 2025. Part of September is a rebound from a weak August.

The longer run is clearer: pharmaceutical imports rose 23.6% to US$2.74 billion in January to September 2026, from US$2.22 billion a year earlier, and every month from January to July 2026 was above US$280 million.

Medicines travel by air: 69.3% of September's packaged medicines came through Ezeiza airport. Germany was the largest origin (US$43.8 million), followed by Slovenia, the United States, Ireland, and Italy. The flow is moderately concentrated: the largest importer accounted for 18.1% of September's packaged medicines, and the largest single declaration was US$22.0 million.

We found no reporting that explains the 2026 increase, so we do not offer one.

What the data shows: Medicine imports are running about a quarter above 2025, and September was the highest month in our data. The cause is not visible in the declarations.

Trade with the U.S.

Argentina's own customs data: imports from the United States were US$493.5 million in September 2026, up 3.9% from US$475.1 million in September 2025, and 8.9% of all imports (8.1% a year earlier). In August they were US$519.7 million, down 7.2% from US$560.0 million.

Official U.S. Census data (through August 2026, the latest U.S. month) shows the relationship tilting toward Argentine sales. U.S. imports from Argentina were US$981.6 million in August, up 29.6% from US$757.6 million, and US$6.51 billion from January to August, up 31.0% from US$4.97 billion. The largest increases were crude oil (US$354.6 million, up US$59.3 million), frozen beef (US$67.1 million, from US$14.2 million), gold (US$143.6 million, up US$46.8 million), and unwrought aluminum (US$52.3 million, from US$10.4 million). U.S. exports to Argentina were US$823.5 million, down 2.6% from US$845.4 million, and US$6.77 billion for January to August, up 0.7%. Refined fuels rose to US$130.7 million from US$32.3 million and fertilizers to US$43.4 million from US$0.6 million, while aircraft fell to US$42.8 million from US$103.0 million.

Seen from Washington, the U.S. bought US$158 million more from Argentina than it sold in August, against a U.S. surplus of US$88 million a year earlier. For January to August, the U.S. surplus with Argentina narrowed to US$267 million from US$1.76 billion.

Policy. The two countries signed a reciprocal trade agreement in February 2026 under which the United States removes reciprocal tariffs on 1,675 Argentine products, El Economista reported. Beef access came separately: a presidential proclamation allows Argentina to ship up to 80,000 tonnes of beef to the U.S. in 2026, released in quarterly tranches of 20,000 tonnes, according to the U.S. Cattlemen's Association and iProfesional. The rise in U.S. frozen beef imports from Argentina is consistent with that quota. Steel and aluminum were left out: iProfesional reported they still pay 50% to enter the U.S., so the jump in aluminum shipments happened despite the tariff; the data does not show why.

The nuance: Argentina recorded US$519.7 million of imports from the U.S. in August, while the U.S. recorded US$823.5 million of exports to Argentina. Mirror figures differ because of timing (shipment vs arrival), valuation, and goods routed through third countries; they are not expected to match.

What the data shows: In 2026 trade with the U.S. has tilted toward Argentine exports: U.S. purchases from Argentina rose about 31% through August, led by crude, gold, and beef under the new quota, while U.S. sales to Argentina were flat.

Verification notes

• Turbojets and gas turbines (HS 8411) rose from US$17.5 million in August to US$87.8 million in September (up 402%), and radioactive elements and isotopes (HS 2844) from US$0.9 million to US$48.8 million. Both are lumpy capital or specialty items and are kept out of the story.
• Coal (HS 2701) rose from US$6.4 million to US$22.1 million. Small base.
• Saudi Arabia and Turkmenistan reached their highest months in our data (US$28.0 million and US$30.1 million), driven by fertilizers. Fertilizer imports in total were 3.7% below September 2025, so this is seasonal buying with a change of supplier, not a new trend.
• Gas imports in September 2025 were only US$8.2 million, so a year-on-year percentage for September gas is not meaningful.
• Duties recorded on Chinese hybrid cars (about 38% of FOB) do not show the zero-tariff quota. This may reflect how the quota is applied rather than a data error; it is flagged for follow-up.
• Car unit counts are declared quantities and are used only as a cross-check on values.

What to watch

• INDEC's September 2026 trade release, scheduled for 19 October 2026, for the national CIF total.
• Decree 1128/2026, reported on 30 September 2026, raised the FOB cap for zero-tariff electrified cars to US$35,000 for electric cars and US$18,000 for hybrids (Parabrisas; C5N). Watch whether pricier electric models appear in October and November declarations.
• Whether medicine imports hold above US$300 million in October.
• The 2027 quota call, and whether Brazilian vehicle imports recover with the car market.

Methodology and data notes

Values are FOB US$ from ARCA import declarations as built by CargoFax (vintage 12 October 2026), matching the public September 2026 report. Electricity (HS 2716) and goods of Argentine origin from Tierra del Fuego and free zones (origin codes 250 to 264) are excluded; with them, September would be about US$0.83 billion higher. Partners are countries of origin. Transport mode is inferred from unpublished codes (sea, road, air, pipeline). Duties are the import duty lines recorded on each declaration divided by FOB value; they are assessed on a customs (CIF) base, so recorded rates can sit above the nominal tariff. Our series begins in January 2025, so "highest" means highest since then. INDEC's national figures are CIF and cover all regimes, so they differ from ours: INDEC reported August 2026 imports of US$6.70 billion, up 3.6% year on year (via Perfil), while our FOB series rose 1.7%. Benchmark gas prices are from the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet). No importer names are used.

Sources

Every link on this page passed the verification gate (live article, date in window, quote found, archived). Tier 1: Bloomberg, WSJ, Reuters, FT. Tier 2: other highly relevant sources (trade press, government, company releases, local press).

Tier 1

No Tier 1 source on this page.

Tier 2

• Tier 2 El Economista. En septiembre crecieron los patentamientos pero acumulan una caída de 13%. 2026-09-30 archive
• Tier 2 Paraíba Business. Exportações de veículos brasileiros caem 28% no início de 2026, aponta Anfavea. 2026-03-09 archive
• Tier 2 Dolarhoy.com. Ventas de autos híbridos y eléctricos aumentaron un 339% en Argentina en el primer semestre de 2026. 2026-07-29 archive
• Tier 2 ANBariloche. Uno de cada cuatro autos patentados en Argentina ya es importado: cómo cambió el mercado y qué vehículos llegan. 2026-06-25 archive
• Tier 2 Bloomberg Línea. Importadores de autos aceleran en Argentina y marcas chinas lideran el podio de los más vendidos. 2026-07-02 archive
• Tier 2 El Economista. A contrarreloj por el frío: Argentina suma barcos de GNL y prepara una millonaria compra de gas. 2026-06-29 archive
• Tier 2 EconoJournal. Apertura del mercado de combustibles: empresas privadas empiezan a importar gas desde Bolivia para cubrir la demanda de generadoras eléctricas en el norte argentino. 2025-06-18 archive
• Tier 2 Diario Río Negro. Todavía no comenzó el invierno y Argentina ya retomó la importación de gas desde Bolivia. 2026-04-23 archive
• Tier 2 El Economista. Petróleo récord: las exportaciones energéticas dejaron casi US$ 900 millones de superávit. 2026-08-24 archive
• Tier 2 El Economista. Revolución exportadora: Vaca Muerta ya manda en la balanza comercial argentina. 2026-06-22 archive
• Tier 2 El Economista. Acuerdo con EE.UU.: Argentina exportará más carne y caen 1.600 aranceles. 2026-02-05 archive
• Tier 2 US Cattlemen's Association. USCA Responds to Announcement of 2026 U.S.–Argentina Beef Trade Agreement. 2026-02-06 archive
• Tier 2 Iprofesional. Exportación de carne argentina a EE.UU.: por qué Trump amplió el cupo por fuera del acuerdo. 2026-02-06 archive
• Tier 2 Parabrisas. Cambios en el régimen de autos eléctricos: fijan nuevos valores máximos para importar sin arancel. 2026-09-30 archive
• Tier 2 c5n.com. El Gobierno elevó el tope para importar autos eléctricos sin arancel. 2026-09-30 archive
• Tier 2 Perfil. La balanza comercial marcó un superávit de US$ 2.187 millones en agosto. 2026-09-18 archive

Data sources

• U.S. Census Bureau, international trade data, August 2026 (CargoFax Census pipeline).